衆議院選挙2017議席・当落予想!希望の党の政権交代の可能性は

衆議院解散に伴う衆議院選挙は10月10日に公示を迎える。

今後は22日に行われる投開票に向けて各党選挙戦に熱が入ることが予想される。

さて、衆議院解散が宣言された9月28日から今回の衆議院選挙に向けて政界は慌ただしい動きを見せた。

その中心にいたのは現東京都知事の小池百合子氏が代表を務める「希望の党」だ。9月25日に結成されたばかりの党だが、現東京都知事という話題性と、なによりその後民進党の前原代表が今回の衆院選では民進党からの公認を出さず、希望の党からの公認を得て出馬すると、事実上の希望の党への合流を宣言したことから希望の党への注目は一気に高まった。

反面、民進党が事実上分裂した影響で生まれたのが「立憲民主党」だ。元々希望の党の思想と相反しており、希望の党に合流せず新党立ち上げに至ったのが経緯だ。こうして衆議院解散を受けて野党は慌ただしい動きを見せた中、今回の総選挙を迎える。

前回の2014年の衆議院選挙では与党である自民党公明党が326議席を獲得し、3分の2の議席を得る圧勝の結果となった。今回は希望の党や立憲民主党がどこまで議席を獲得することができるのか。2017年の衆議院選挙の結果を予想していく。

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前回の衆議院選挙2014の結果は?

今回の衆議院選挙の結果を予想する前に、前回の2014年の総選挙の結果を振り返っていこう。

党名 議席数
自民党 291
公明党 35
民主党 73
維新の党 41
共産党 21
次世代の党 2
生活の党 2
社民党 2

2014年に行われた衆議院選挙は自民党・公明党の与党が326議席を獲得する圧勝の結果となった。

この年の総選挙の争点となっていたのは安倍晋三首相が掲げた経済政策「アベノミクス」についてだった。結果的に自公が圧勝し、選挙結果を受けて安倍首相は第三次内閣を発足することになる。

また野党第一党だった民主党は、2012年の惨敗から支持率を回復することができず今回も苦しい戦いを強いられた。当時民主党の代表だった海江田代表が落選するなど自公圧勝を許す結果となった。野党第一党の党首が選挙に落選するのは1996年に現行の小選挙区比例代表並立制になって以来初めてのことだった。

また自民、民主に代わる第三極として期待されていた「維新の党」も伸び悩む結果となった。代わりに政権批判の受け皿として共産党が前回の8議席から21議席と大きく票を伸ばした。

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今回の衆議院選挙の結果を予想

さて今回の衆議院選挙結果だが、筆者はこう予想している。

党名 議席数
自民党 271
公明党 34
希望の党 70
日本維新の会 26
立憲民主党 19
共産党 21
社民党 2
無所属 24

野党分裂で自公の勢いはそれほど弱まらず

希望の党結成で一気に政権奪取かとメディアが盛り上がった時期もあったが、現在は希望の党の勢いは落ち着いた感がある。

原因は二つ。第一に「立憲民主党」の結成だ。希望の党に民進党が合流し、実質野党共闘の形となる様相だったが、思想が違うという理由で希望の党の公認を得られなかった議員たちが「立憲民主党」を結成したため、野党共闘どころか分裂の様相となってしまった。

結果打倒与党の票が希望の党に集まりつつあったのが立憲民主党の結成により分散されることとなった。最新の支持率調査でも希望の党の支持率が落ち、立憲民主党の支持率が上がり、結果として打倒与党の票が二つに分散される形となっている。

二つ目に希望の党の政策の不透明さがある。2030年までの原発ゼロを掲げながら廃炉に向けての工程表が示されていなかったり、国民に最低限の生活を保障するお金を支給する「ベーシックインカム」を公約に掲げながら、必要となる財源をどこから捻出するか示していないなど不透明な部分が多い。

また野党第一党として候補が上がっていながら、代表である小池百合子氏が今回の衆院選に出馬せず首相候補が決まっていないのも大きい。SNS上で「小池氏とのツーショット3万円」のワードがトレンド入りするなど希望の党に対するイメージも結成当初より低下したのも大きいだろう。

ともかくして希望の党結成、民進党議員が合流となったまでは野党共闘が加速し自民党一強を揺るがすかと思ったが、立憲民主党の結成等もあり自公の議席はさほど揺るがないだろう。しかし公示日に小池氏がサプライズで出馬を表明するなどすれば事態が大きく揺れ動く可能性もある。今後の選挙情報にますます注目していきたい。

関連記事

希望の党のメンバーと公認リスト一覧!民進党からの合流は?

希望の党の政策”ユリノミクス”とは?アベノミクスとの違いや効果は?

希望の党の政権交代で首相・総理大臣は誰?小池百合子氏か前原氏か

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